As part of the financial planning process, school business officials may consider a three- to five-year analysis to determine where they are financially and what effect budget reductions would have on the community and district as a whole. However, sometimes the best planning can still result in a budget gap, reduced enrollment, and the need to make difficult decisions.
Decreased enrollment does not automatically mean a district should close or consolidate schools or look to share or regionalize. Investigating the reasons for reduced enrollment should be the first step in the decision-making process.
A study of district demographics will provide valuable information from in-house sources about enrollment per grade level and from local agencies about the number of live births each year to predict where future enrollments could be headed. The data can show what grade levels may or may not have issues (larger/smaller class sizes or possibly combining class sizes) in future budget years.
Information on housing trends can provide more data for planning. While there may be increased building or current development within the district boundaries, the number of residents may not be equated to the number of additional students. Private schools and vocational school district enrollments also play into the plus/minus column of students attending the local school district.
The district might consider a survey to see why registrations are declining or hold discussions with real estate agents, PTAs, or other school business officials to determine similarities.
Investigating the reasons for reduced enrollment should be the first step in the decision-making process.
1. Enrollment. First, chart out enrollment and estimate enrollment for the next three to five years. Look back five years and compare the numbers to current enrollment. If there is a decrease, a decrease may continue over the next three years. If enrollment increases, will it plateau or keep moving forward over the next three years?
If enrollment has decreased and appears to continue declining, the next step is to consider staffing.
2. Staffing. Staffing is always a sensitive topic because it’s personal, literally and figuratively.
In general terms, using an average class size of 20 students for high school, a reduction of eight students per year could result in a reduction of one teacher. While this may not affect the basic mandatory subjects of math, science, and English, it can take a toll on the enrichment classes, such as theater and foreign languages, that depend on enrollment. It can be difficult for an administrator to determine whether to cancel French IV, which has 12 students enrolled for the upcoming year.
While enrollment may be decreasing, staffing may stay about the same according to the district's specific needs. If enrollment decreases but the special needs population grows each year, the result will be only a slight reduction in staff.
3. Building Space. After staffing, building space is the second-hardest decision for administrators/board members to consider.
If the district maintains a long-term master facilities plan, decisions about closing or consolidating buildings may not seem sudden. If, due to budgetary constraints and reduced enrollment, the district is pondering selling building(s), consider the condition of the building, the original funding for the building, and if selling the building will cause issues with enrollment in the years ahead or bridging future budget gaps.
Other Considerations
If a district needs additional space, see if a nearby district has space for combining in a shared service. While there are logistical items to work out, it could be a solution that benefits both districts.
Another topic to consider is the possible increase in the number of private schools. If, despite an increase in the local population, the enrollment in the district is not increasing, this is another factor that may influence the decision to consolidate, close, or combine.
In the face of decreasing populations and reduced enrollments in public schools, school business officials must introduce this topic now, no matter what stage their district is in, to ease the burden of having to have the difficult conversations in the (near) future.