Education Funding Forecast: What Federal Decisions Mean for Your Budget

 

Learn how federal policy and funding for FY25 and FY26 will impact district budgets for the 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 school years.

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Elleka Yost, ASBO International

 Published April 2025

With everything that has been going on in Washington, D.C., since the new administration and the 119th Congress took office, many school business professionals are trying to figure out what to expect for federal education funding as they build their budgets. While it seems like there are more questions than answers, here’s what we do know to help school business officials forecast and plan.

FY25 Recap: What Funding Is Coming for SY 2025-2026? 

In mid-March, Congress narrowly averted a government shutdown by passing a full-year continuing resolution (CR) to keep federal programs funded through the remainder of the 2025 fiscal year (FY25). Federal FY25 runs from October 1, 2024, through September 30, 2025, and affects the dollars available in districts during the 2025-2026 school year.

The FY25 CR flat-funded most federal education programs at last year’s (FY24) level, including Title I, IDEA, Impact Aid, Title III, Title IV-A, and others. However, funding is uncertain for some select education programs, including Title II and other educator training grants, as well as many higher education programs and research funding at the U.S. Department of Education (USED).  

Funding is uncertain for several education programs because they did not receive specified funding levels outlined in the CR. When Congress passes a spending bill, it typically provides an explanatory statement giving instructions to federal agencies that specify funding levels for each program. However, there was no explanatory statement with this CR. Without these instructions, it’s possible the administration could have more flexibility to shuffle some education dollars around (without congressional input) to better align federal spending with their own priorities.  

To better understand which education programs could be affected, we recommend referencing this table from the Committee for Education Funding (CEF) — a national coalition ASBO International partners with to advocate for federal education funding.  

CEF’s table shows programs that received flat funding for FY25 in black and programs with unspecified (read: uncertain) funding in red. Advocates worry that those programs may not receive full funding (or any funding), depending on the administration’s discretion. 

Advisors from Education Counsel note that USED has 45 days after the CR’s enactment to provide a detailed operating plan to House and Senate Appropriations Committees for FY25 spending, so we hope to learn more in the coming weeks about whether the administration will leverage this spending flexibility and how. 

Title II and other educator training programs are considered at risk not only because they didn’t receive specified funding in the CR, but also because of recent actions taken by USED to cancel teacher training grants (and other grants and contracts) and reduce the department’s workforce.  

It is reasonable to expect that these programs may not receive full funding, given several ongoing lawsuits concerning executive orders on promoting DEI, dismantling USED, and for terminating teacher training grants specifically. This month, the U.S. Supreme Court even weighed in favor of the administration’s request to continue withholding $65 million in teacher grants while litigation is being sorted out in the lower courts.  

Nevertheless, flat funding for federal education for FY25 should be considered an advocacy win. School business professionals may remember that last summer, House Republicans had proposed significant cuts to Title I and other education programs. The federal fiscal belt has only tightened since then, so flat funding is ideal when compared to deep cuts.

Federal FY25 affects the dollars available in districts during the 2025-2026 school year. FY26 runs from October 1, 2025, through September 30, 2026, and affects funding for school districts in SY 2026-2027.

Budget Reconciliation & FY26 Forecast for SY 2026-2027  

With FY25 spending behind them, House and Senate Republicans are now focusing on budget reconciliation to achieve various policy goals concerning spending on defense, immigration, energy, tax reform, and other issues.  

So, what exactly is budget reconciliation? It is an expedited legislative process for making changes to federal mandatory spending, revenues, taxes, and/or the debt limit. Reconciliation is a powerful tool Republicans are trying to leverage because they can bypass a Senate filibuster, requiring only a simple majority to pass.  

Reconciliation has been used by both parties to pass major legislation, including the Affordable Care Act, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, American Rescue Plan Act, and Inflation Reduction Act. However, there are restrictions and special rules about what can be included in such a bill.  

One key requirement is reconciliation must only address mandatory spending, not discretionary. Many education funding streams that districts rely on, such as Title I and IDEA, deal with discretionary funds. However, tax provisions, nutrition programs, Medicaid, and some higher education funding streams come from mandatory spending, which could be affected in a reconciliation bill.  

While Social Security is also a mandatory program, a rule protects it from being included in reconciliation. Whether something is allowed in reconciliation depends on the judgment of the Senate parliamentarian (or the Senate’s ability to gather 60 votes to override that judgment, which is highly unlikely).  

Many proposals are being considered in reconciliation, some of which could affect education, such as the following: 

  • A proposal to create a federal school choice program via a federal tuition tax credit voucher (i.e., the Educational Choice for Children Act [ECCA]. 
  • Proposals to reform school nutrition programs by limiting participation in Community Eligibility (CEP) or increasing income verification requirements for students to qualify for free and reduced-price meals.  
  • Proposals to restructure or cut funding to Medicaid. 
  • Proposals to revoke the tax exemption of municipal bonds or tax incentives that help schools afford investments in energy-efficient transportation and infrastructure projects. 
  • A proposal to limit eligibility for the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program, which provides student loan forgiveness to those who have served 10 years in a qualifying public service profession, including education. 

ASBO International has been working with various coalitions, including CEF, the National Coalition on Public Education (NCPE), the Healthy School Meals for All Coalition, Medicaid in Schools Coalition, Public Finance Network, and others to advocate for schools.  

We’re urging Congress to oppose private school vouchers, preserve CEP and current verification processes for school meals, protect Medicaid funding, preserve helpful tax programs for financing public works projects that provide students with better learning environments, and preserve student loan programs that support a stronger educator pipeline.  


A Time for Action 

So, where is Congress with budget reconciliation now? As of early April, House and Senate Republicans are trying to agree on a budget resolution that can pass both chambers to unlock the option of doing reconciliation, so we’re still at the beginning of this process.  

President Trump has urged Congress to pass “one big, beautiful bill” to achieve their goals, so Congress is trying to move forward with that strategy by passing a singular budget resolution before their April recess. A final reconciliation package is expected by May.   

After reconciliation, lawmakers will turn to appropriations for the 2026 federal fiscal year (FY26). FY26 runs from October 1, 2025, through September 30, 2026, and affects funding for school districts in SY 2026-2027. The President is expected to kick off the process with the release of his FY26 Budget proposal in May, and then appropriators will do their work this spring and summer. We anticipate FY26 funding proposals will call for even deeper cuts to education.

Now is an opportune time for school business professionals to start contacting their elected officials.

Now is an opportune time for school business professionals to contact their elected officials about how budget reconciliation proposals would negatively affect students, families, and schools. Whether you’re concerned about vouchers, possible reforms to Medicaid and nutrition programs, tax changes that could make capital project financing more expensive, or how ending PSLF will affect your district’s ability to recruit and retain educators, share your story with your lawmakers.  

And, if you’d like to join your peers in advocating for education funding this summer as Congress is working on FY26 spending, plan to attend the 2025 Legislative Advocacy Conference, July 8-10, in Washington, D.C. This event, co-hosted by AASA, The School Superintendents Association, and ASBO International, provides an opportunity for school district leaders to connect and learn about federal policy issues impacting their schools and advocate on Capitol Hill.  

If you have questions about the conference or how to advocate to your federal officials, please contact us. ASBO International is always here to support our members! 

  

   

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