Three factors influence school district enrollment:
- The in-migration of students in grades 1–12 versus the out-migration of students in those grades.
- The difference between the number of kindergarten students coming into the district versus the number of seniors leaving the district.
- The number of students who choose an alternative to public education (private schools, charter schools, home schools, virtual schools, etc.).
The impact of these factors varies from district to district, and even school to school; consequently, understanding the community and the school district is the first step in selecting an appropriate method for enrollment estimates.
Questions to consider include (1) Does the district consist of one school or several? (2) What are the community’s demographics? (3) Is the community growing or in decline? (4) If it is diversifying, which racial and cultural characteristics of the incoming population can affect household size? and (5) Is the number of students in the school decreasing?
It may seem counterintuitive; however, it is possible for the community’s population to increase and the school district’s enrollment to decrease. This trend indicates an aging community population.
In-Migration and Out-Migration
The two primary methods for making enrollment forecasts are ratio share and grade progression rate.
The ratio share method takes into consideration a larger geographic entity—such as a city, county, region, or state—that has population forecasts. This larger entity is called the parent area. Historic annual population data for the parent area, prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau (https://data.census.gov), are compared with the enrollment of the school district population of the parent area. This comparison establishes the ratio of the school district and the parent area.
…it is possible for the community population to increase and the school district enrollment to decrease.
Applying the ratio to the future population estimates of the parent area guides the school district’s future enrollment estimates. Future population forecasts for the parent area are available from local universities (e.g., in Kansas, the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University), city or regional planning offices, or state departments of commerce.
As an example, let’s say the county population (parent area) is 10,000, and the school district population has historically been 10% of that total (1,000 students). If the population of the county is forecast to grow to 10,500 in the next five years, the school district could be expected to grow to 1,050 students.
Smaller school districts (those with one to three sections per grade) should use the ratio share method for yearly enrollment estimates. Population estimates for these parent areas can be 20–40 years out. This method can also be helpful to districts of all sizes as a long-range guide for the district’s overall enrollment trend.
With this method, it is important to continue tracking the enrollment of the parent area and the school district for changes in the ratio.
The grade progression rate method—sometimes called the cohort survival method—calculates the rate that a class of students changes from one grade to the next for known grades (grades 1–12). As an example, if a school had 100 second graders last year and 105 third graders this year, the rate of progression for that class would be 105%.
A progression rate above 100% indicates a growing enrollment with students moving into the district (in-migration). A rate below 100% indicates a declining enrollment (out-migration).
Calculation of the progression rate is based on several years in order to reduce the effects of single-year swings. Averaging the progression rates over three to five years should remove the swings. Progression rates can be calculated for each grade at each school.
Projecting Kindergarten
Districts can use two methods to calculate kindergarten class size. The 2020 census is an excellent data source, as it breaks down the population by age; the youngest age category is 0–5. Currently, that information has been released only for cities, counties, or states; the Census Bureau will soon release the data for school districts as well. In between the decennial census, the Census Bureau will release population estimates from the American Community Survey.
A simple method for projecting kindergarten enrollment is to divide the total 0–5 age population by five to derive an average kindergarten population for future years. It is important to use only the most current data, since demographics in small areas can change quickly.
The other forecasting option is based on live birth data. Each state’s public health department tracks the number of live births per calendar year, often by counties or cities. The live birth rate might be expressed as a raw number or as a ratio of the total births per 1,000 population.
The ratio share technique is the basis for developing a ratio between the parent area (state, county, city) and kindergarten class sizes five years later. These kindergarten estimates should be adjusted as new information (kindergarten roundup number or next year’s enrollment numbers) becomes available.
Enrollment and School Choice
The third factor in enrollment estimates is how many students choose an alternative to traditional K–12 public education. The availability and quality of data to determine this vary. State departments of education provide data on private school enrollment, which might include all private schools or only accredited private schools.
Most states require parents to notify their school district or state department of education if they are choosing to homeschool or enroll their children in a virtual school. Because the accuracy of the data depends on parental reporting, the quality of the homeschooling data can be suspect.
A geographic information system (GIS) is an excellent tool to help evaluate and understand the spatial implications of the resources.
Comparing the enrollment of the school district in April 2020 with the 5–18 age population in the decennial census data will offer a snapshot of how many school-age children do not attend public schools. For my suburban school district with no charter schools, that number was 6%, or 1,800 students. For other districts, this number may be more than 50%.
Valuable Data Resources
The district must have basic data to forecast enrollment changes, including enrollment in individual grades and individual buildings and anticipated changes in the area population.
The state department of education is a source of historical data about the school district and its schools. Many state education departments have a data resource or statistics area on their website that provides district and school enrollment numbers and allows users to create their own data tables. Other sources of high school enrollment data might include state high school athletic associations or even past school yearbooks.
As discussed earlier, the U.S. census is an excellent source of community data. Other local resources include data from county and city building permits, new subdivisions, and the housing vacancy rate. New residential building permit data can provide the school district with information about the location of the dwellings (including subdivisions) and the type of dwelling (single-family, townhouse, apartment).
In my experience, specific subdivisions appeal to a homogeneous clientele. Families moving into newly constructed homes have age and family characteristics similar to those of the current residents of the subdivision.
The local planning department can provide copies of the new building plats, which also show the location of future residential growth 5–10 years out. That information, combined with the number of homes that are for sale in the community, can increase the accuracy of enrollment estimates.
A geographic information system (GIS) is an excellent tool to help evaluate and understand the spatial implications of the resources. A GIS uses tabular data to reflect the information on a map, which shows its geographic context. With a GIS, it is possible to see where
- Students live.
- New houses are being built.
- Undeveloped land is available for future residential growth.
- Overcrowded or underused schools are located.
To use a GIS to estimate enrollment, focus on street centerlines, address points, school district boundaries, and school attendance area boundaries.
Comparisons of a district’s enrollment forecast with other forecasts may be available. Although the National Center for Education Statistics does regional (multistate) estimates, these estimates cover too large of an area to be helpful to individual school districts. State departments of education or state associations of school boards may create district enrollment estimates.
For school districts without the personnel or resources to produce enrollment estimates, alternate choices are available. If the district is large enough (more than 10,000 students), hire a planning professional. The cost to hire an entry-level planner is approximately $50,000 plus benefits. A planner will know how to use a GIS, will work with local governments, and will understand the process for forecasting enrollments. If planners can keep a school district from building one school at a cost of $6 million to $16 million, they will have paid for their position. Another option is to hire a consultant. The price of the consultant will depend on the size of the district, the information the district has already collected, and the contract term.
Accurate enrollment estimates will better prepare all school districts for their future.